Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed the Tuesday session with most contracts 4 to 5 3/4 cents lower, rallying 5-6 cents off the lows of the day. Moderation in the US weather forecasts and a bump in condition ratings provided an excuse for profit taking. Of the 18 reported states, just PA and TX were ahead of their average silking progress. That means most states were not as vulnerable to pollination issues with this week’s high temps as they might otherwise have been. NASS also reported conditions in IL 10 points higher (Brugler500 Index) on the week, with MO up 8 and OH 5 points higher. IN and IA were steady, with MN 5 points lower and NE down 2. The national average corn cash price was reported at $4.26 3/4 by cmdtyView, pegging basis at -8 1/2 cents against September. Last year on the same date, cash was @ $3.07 3/4 with basis at -34 cents. INTL FCStone estimates Brazil corn production at 99.7 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from their previous number.

SEP 19 Corn closed at $4.35 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $4.41 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn closed at $4.48 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.52, down 4 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures ended Tuesday with most nearby contracts 13 to 14 cents lower. August soybean meal was down $3.20/ton, with soy oil down 29 points. The weekly USDA Crop Progress report indicated MS as the only state to be reported at faster than normal for blooming pace. Crop conditions last week saw IL and MO up 5 points, with OH 6 higher. IA was down 1, with MN 4 lower and NE deteriorating 6 points. Forecasts shows rainfall expected in northern parts of the Corn Belt and into the ECB over the next week. A look at cmdtyView’s national average cash price index shows cash beans at $8.18 3/4 vs. $7.68 1/2 last year on the same day. That puts basis at -69 cents vs. August with last year at -61 cents.

AUG 19 Soybeans closed at $8.87 3/4, down 14 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $8.93 3/4, down 14 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.06, down 14 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans closed at $9.18 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal closed at $308.40, down $3.20,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil closed at $27.99, down $0.29

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures saw fractional to 3 cent losses in most contracts on Tuesday, held back by losses in the rest of the grain complex. The Northern Plains are still lagging harvest pace considerably, with KS now 81% harvested and OK and TX finishing up. Spring wheat conditions by state showed ID as the only to show deterioration, with MN up 1, SD 6 points higher, and ND unch. Taiwan importers issued a tender to buy 90,650 MT of US wheat on Tuesday, with the tender to close 7/23. Egypt’s GASC has set another buying tender for wheat for late August delivery with the tender to close tomorrow.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.07 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.46 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.30 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures settled Tuesday with most contracts 25 to 55 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were also lower, down 60 to 75 cents in the front months. The CME feeder cattle index was up 70 cents @ $141.16 on July 15. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 34 cents at $212.93 with Select boxes a nickel lower @ $189.16. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 238,000 head through Tuesday. That was 3,000 head below the previous week but 2,000 larger than the same week last year.

AUG 19 Cattle closed at $108.225, down $0.275,

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $109.250, down $0.525,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $113.725, down $0.375,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.050, down $0.600

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.875, down $0.725

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.225, down $0.750

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures were 30 cents to $1.55 higher in most contracts on Tuesday, with newly appointed nearby Aug down $1.05. The CME Lean Hog Index was UNCH from the previous day on July 12 @ $70.73. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $2.90 in the Tuesday PM report at $75.80. The butt was the only primal reported lower, with the belly up $9.53. The national average base hog price was up 75 cents on Tuesday afternoon at $69.36. Estimated FI hog slaughter for Tuesday was 885,000 head. That was down 72,000 head from last week due to plant down time and 3,000 head below the same week last year. China's hog herd is officially 15% smaller, although other Chinese data suggests a much larger decline from ASF.

AUG 19 Hogs closed at $79.050, down $1.050,

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $75.300, up $1.400

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $73.350, up $1.550

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures saw losses of 56 to 132 points in the nearby contracts on Tuesday. Strength in the US dollar along with improved crop ratings on Monday pressured the market lower. After Monday’s close, NASS showed that TX had 12% of their crop setting bolls, 6% behind normal, with GA 8% faster than normal at 45%. Any damage from TS Barry is likely to show up in next week’s report due to the timing as LA was 5 points better on Monday. MO and TN were the only states with lower conditions, as TX was up 13 points and MS was 16 higher. The Cotlook A index for July 15 was down 40 points from the previous day at 73.65 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 58.05 cents/lb through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 62.38, down 132 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 63.09, down 86 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 64.32, down 68 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 65.24, down 56 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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