AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are mostly 6 cents lower today. They finished Monday mixed and most contracts were within 1/4 cent of unchanged. The USDA reported a private sale of 125,000 MT of corn for the 16/17 marketing year to an unknown destination through their daily reporting system. The EIA report is back to its normal schedule this week, with its release Wednesday morning. Informa updated their US corn acreage estimates from 90.2 million acres in December to 90.5 million acres for January for the 2017/18 year. Chinese December imports of ethanol and DDGs dropped sharply from year ago levels, but product was still coming in. Ethanol imports were 124,823 cubic metres in December according to Reuters, with DDGs at 69.967 MT. Traders reported that Israel is seeking 85,000 MT of optional origin corn for March 5-May 15 delivery, with the tender closing Thursday.

Mar 17 Corn is at $3.62 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

May 17 Corn is at $3.70, down 6 1/2 cents,

Jul 17 Corn is at $3.77 1/4, down 6 cents

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.83 1/2, down 6 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently slightly lower, down mostly 2 cents, meal is down $2.80, but soy oil is up 33 points. The forecasts for next week have rain returning to Argentina, adding to already saturated soils, and rain is also interfering with soybean harvest in Brazil. Private exporters reported sales of 112,000 MT of soybeans to Mexico, 42,000 MT for this current MY and 70,000 MT for the 17/18 MY, through the USDA reporting system. Also reported was 163,000MT of soybeans to unknown destinations, with 103,000 MT sold in 16/17 and 60,000 MT sold in 17/18. Informa released their estimates for 17/18 US soybean acreage at 88.6 million acres, down from Decembers report of 88.9 million acres. Chinese soybean imports are currently on pace for a record year, as they are currently showing a 4% to 5% increase over last year.

Mar 17 Soybeans are at $10.55 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,

May 17 Soybeans are at $10.64 3/4, down 2 cents,

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $10.71, down 2 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $10.66 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 17 Soybean Meal is at $340.70, down $2.80,

Mar 17 Soybean Oil is at $35.46, up $0.33

Wheat

Wheat futures are trading mixed at midday, with CBT and KC both 5 1/4 cents and 2 3/4 cents lower respectively, while MPLS is fractionally higher by 1/2 cent. The USD was down 720 points on Monday but is a little higher in overseas trading this morning. Informa estimates plantings for 2017 at 45.8 million acres for all wheat, down from their December estimate of 46.6 million acres Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange reports estimated wheat production in Argentina at 15.8 MMT vs. the USDA’s estimate of 15 MMT, with 100% now harvested. Japan is seeking 120,000 MT of wheat, with the tender to close on January 25.

Mar 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.28, down 5 1/4 cents,

Mar 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.42, down 2 3/4 cents,

Mar 17 MGEX Wheat is at $5.64 3/4, up 1/2 cent

Cattle

Live cattle are 60 to 92.5 cents lower on the day thus far, with feeder futures also 30 cents to $1.175 lower. The CME feeder cattle index for 1/20 was $133.46, up 18 cents from the previous day. Wholesale beef prices were both higher on Tuesday morning with choice up $1.50 and select up $2.36 at $193.27 and $189.19 respectively. Estimated FI slaughter for Monday was at 115,000 head, 4,000 head larger than last year. Cash trade was inactive on Monday, which is typical. Last week live trade was moderate on good demand in all feeding regions. Most live sales were around $122, while dressed sales were mostly at $195.

Feb 17 Cattle are at $119.475, down $0.775,

Apr 17 Cattle are at $118.250, down $0.925,

Jun 17 Cattle are at $108.000, down $0.600,

Jan 17 Feeder Cattle are at $132.475, down $0.300

Mar 17 Feeder Cattle are at $129.500, down $1.175

Apr 17 Feeder Cattle are at $128.975, down $0.950

Lean Hogs

Lean hogs are trading 12.5 to 40 cents higher today, after they settled lower on Monday. The CME lean hog index for 1/20 was $67.03, up 2 cents from the previous day. USDA's weighted average carcass value was 52 cents higher in the morning report at $79.90. Ham and loin cuts averaged slightly lower this morning from 2 to 25 cents, with all other cuts higher. Negotiated cash hog base prices had a national weighted average of $62.33, which was 38 cents lower, with prices ranging from $61.74 to $64.50. The WCB was the only region reported at a penny higher to $63.80 Estimated FI slaughter was 440,000 head for Monday, 10,000 larger than a year ago. President Trump officially pulled the US out of the TPP, which had not been ratified but promised to sharply increase pork exports to Asian markets.

Feb 17 Hogs are at $65.400, up $0.400,

Apr 17 Hogs are at $67.900, up $0.125

May 17 Hogs are at $73.225, up $0.250

Cotton

Cotton futures are down triple digits currently, after they posted triple digit gains in the front three contracts on Monday. The USD is losing another 120 points to add to losses posted yesterday. Crude oil futures are 68 cents higher on the session. Estimates from Informa peg 2017 Cotton acreage at 10.7 million acres for pima and upland, slightly higher than the USDA’s estimate of 10.07 million acres. The world average price (AWP) through Thursday is 62.58 cents. Grower to business sales fell to 16,574 bales from 36,363 bales on the Seam, while business to business trade was inactive. Total bales ginned so far for 2016 are at 14,389,700, compared to 11,337,250 in 2015. The Cotlook A index for January 23 was 82.45, up 0.40.

Mar 17 Cotton is at 73.05, down 158 points,

May 17 Cotton is at 73.74, down 143 points

Jul 17 Cotton is at 74.29, down 136 points

Dec 17 Cotton is at 71.000, down 92 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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