AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the Friday session with most contracts 3 to 4 cents in the red. Nearby Dec wiped out all of last week’s gains, down 1.81% since last Friday. There was a little harvest pressure, and some garden variety profit taking after hitting chart resistance on Monday. The poor weekly export sales from Thursday were also a feature. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report indicated that specs in corn futures and options flipped their net position by 54,186 contracts as of Tuesday. That new net long position was at 20,154 contracts. A total of 1.203 MMT of corn from Chinese state reserves was sold on Friday, taking up 29.99% of the offered amount. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 32.6% of Argentina’s corn crop is planted as of 10/17, which is 4.1% faster than the average.

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.67, down 3 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.79 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.87, down 3 1/4 cents

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.92 3/4, down 3 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management, (402) 289-2330

Soybeans Market Commentary

Soybean futures fell into the close on Friday to settle within 1/2 cent of the low, down 6 to 7 1/4 cents. Nearby Nov was down 1.24% from a week ago. Front month soy meal was $3.20/ton lower on the day, with soy oil up 12 points. USDA reported a total of 180,000 MT of net cancellations for 18/19 soybeans to China this morning, with an additional 120,000 MT of optional origin beans to unknown also cancelled. US Soybean export sales commitments typically would total 54% of the USDA export projection by this date, with only 37% reached so far this year. Weekly data from CFTC showed spec funds trimming their net short position in soybean futures and options by 5,033 contracts on 10/16 to -36,368 contracts. AgRural on Friday estimated that 34% of the Brazilian bean crop was planted. The 5 year average pace is 18%.

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.56 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.70 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.83 1/2, down 7 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.07 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents,

Dec 18 Soybean Meal closed at $313.10, down $3.20,

Dec 18 Soybean Oil closed at $29.14, up $0.12

--Call Brugler Marketing & Management @ (402) 289-2330 with questions or news tips.

Wheat Market Commentary

Wheat futures were mostly steady to 4 cents higher on Friday, with MPLS the strongest. Front month CBT was down 0.48% on the week, with KC 1.53% lower and MPLS 1.22% in the red. Wheat export commitments are 18% smaller than last year at this time, but unshipped sales are down only 4%, so the picture looks a little better going forward. USDA stuck to their 1.025 bbu projection last week, while export commitments are 44% of that total and are normally 62% by this time. Money managers in Chicago wheat futures and options skimmed just 92 contracts from their net short position as of Tuesday to -16,793 contracts. In KC wheat futures and options, they added 2,361 contracts to that net long position of 28,174 contracts.

Dec 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.14 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.16 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.88 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330

Cattle Market Commentary

Live cattle futures ended the Friday session with most contracts 20 to 85 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were also weaker, down 30 to 97.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was down 14 cents on October 18 at $155.36. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.11 @ $207.93, with Select $1.89 higher at $194.24. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter through Saturday at 625,000 head, 14,000 below the previous week and down 8,000 from last year. There was little cash trade reported on Friday, with a few trades around $111 in the north earlier in the week. The monthly Cattle on Feed report showed September placements going against trade estimate at 2.051 million head, down 4.6% from last year. Marketings during that month were down 3.59% from last year with one less marketing day at 1.719 million head. October 1 cattle on feed were reported at 11.4 million head which was 5.43% larger than last year. That was shy of trade estimates but is still the largest October number on record. Heifers on feed for October 1 was at 4.307 million head, the largest number of heifers since 2001.

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $112.250, down $0.825,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $116.775, down $0.400,

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $121.150, down $0.225,

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $154.650, down $0.600

Nov 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $154.100, down $0.325

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.750, down $0.675

--Call Brugler Marketing & Management @ (402) 289-2330 with questions or news tips.

Lean Hogs Market Commentary

Lean hog futures dropped into the close, with Dec settling a dime off the low. Dec was down 70 cents, with other front months triple digits lower. December fell 6.18% ($3.40) on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 41 cents from the previous day @ $67.76 on October 17. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 30 cents higher @ $78.42 in the PM report. The national base hog carcass value was down 44 cents at a weighted average of $58.72. USDA FI hog slaughter is estimated at 2.589 million head through Saturday. That is up 100,000 from last week on a large Saturday kill and 131,000 larger than the same week in 2017. A Chinese animal health official reported on Friday morning that the country has culled an estimated 200,000 hogs due to the recent African Swine Fever outbreak. The outbreak has hit some larger operations this week, including one 20,000 head location

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $51.600, down $0.700,

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $59.025, down $1.200

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $65.725, down $1.275

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management, Call (402) 289-2330

Cotton Market Commentary

Cotton futures settled with most contracts steady to 13 points in the red. Thursday’s Cotton on Call report indicated that mills backed off their unfixed call sales position by 1,193 contracts in the week that ended 10/12 to 23,421 contracts for December. Cotton export commitments are still well ahead of the normal pace at 63% of the USDA full year projection with 46% the average. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed money managers adding just 141 contracts to their net long position of 47,680 contracts as of 10/16. The Cotlook A index was down another 50 points from the previous day at 87.25 cents/lb on October 18. The USDA weekly AWP was updated to 69.09 cents/lb, up 1.32 cents from last week and good through next Thursday.

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 77.920, down 13 points,

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 79.360, down 13 points

May 19 Cotton closed at 80.450, down 10 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management (402) 289-2330


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com