AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Commentary

Corn futures are fractionally lower this morning. They posted their fifth consecutive higher close on Tuesday, with most contracts up 3 to 3 1/4 cents. The buying interest was only short covering, with preliminary December contract open interest sinking 10,680 contracts on Tuesday. Much of the Corn Belt is moving at a faster than normal harvest pace according to the Crop Progress report. That may be slowed by wet conditions later this week. Condition ratings in NE were down 1 point, with IA steady, MN up 3 and IL 4 points higher. The quarterly Grain Stocks report from the USDA will be released on Friday, with the average trade estimate for September 1 corn stocks at 2.01 bbu. That would be an 8 mbu increase from the September WASDE 17/18 US ending stocks projection if realized.

Soybeans Market Commentary

Soybean futures are currently 4 to 5 cents higher after also ending the Turnaround Tuesday session with most contracts 4 to 5 cents in the green. Preliminary open interest rose 5,973 contracts. Nearby soy meal was up $1.50/ton, while soy oil saw 11-point gains. A 24-hour strike closed ports in Argentina on Tuesday. Both Brazil and Argentina are planning to import US beans for crushers to replace what was shipped to China. Friday’s Grain Stocks report, released at 11 a.m. CDT, is expected to show 398 mbu of soybean stocks on September 1, based on trade surveys. That is a buildup of 96 mbu from last year and 3 higher than the Sept S&D table. As of Sunday, all of the 18 reported states were matching or ahead of their normal harvest pace except Arkansas. Soybean condition ratings in NE were down 3 points, with NC seeing the largest loss following Hurricane Florence, down 34.

Wheat Market Commentary

Wheat futures are trading 3 to 5 cents higher in all three markets this morning. They saw 6 to 7 cent losses in the winter wheat contracts on Tuesday, with MPLS down 3 to 4 cents. The average trade guess ahead of Friday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report is for September 1 wheat stocks to be at 2.344 bbu, 3% larger than last year, on lackluster first quarter demand. As of September 23, NASS showed 21% of the Kansas winter wheat crop had been planted, with OK at 27% and TX 30% complete. Taiwan is seeking 110,000 MT of US wheat, with offers due on October 2. Japan is tendering for 109,150 MT of wheat this week, with 49,470 MT US origin and results expected on Thursday.

Cattle Market Commentary

Live cattle futures ended the Turnaround Tuesday session with up to 25 cent gains. Feeder cattle futures were up 10 to 50 cents in the front months. The CME feeder cattle index on September 24 was up 49 cents at $157.83. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 43 cents to $205.73, while Select boxes were 52 cents higher at $194.87. The market is taking the buildup of unsold meat in the coolers in stride. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 239,000 head through Tuesday. That is up 5,000 from last week and 3,000 head above the same week in 2017.

Lean Hogs Market Commentary

Lean hog futures posted 45 cent to $1.425 gains in the front months on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.74 on September 21 to $60.85. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 43 cents higher on Tuesday afternoon at $80.45. The national base hog carcass value was $1.90 higher in the Tuesday afternoon report at $62.50. Weekly FI hog slaughter through Tuesday was estimated at 944,000 head. That is up 106,000 head from last week and 23,000 head larger than the same week last year. President Trump signed the updated KORUS trade agreement with South Korea, extending zero duty US access to the South Korean market for a number of meat products.

Cotton Market Commentary

Cotton futures are 28 to 51 points higher this morning. They were 41 to 51 points higher in the front months on Tuesday, with nearby but thinly traded Oct up 168. The 7-day QPF shows heavy rain forecasts for areas from Southeast TX all the way through the Carolinas. The Monday afternoon Crop Progress report showed that the TX harvest only progressed 1% to 23 over the past week but was still 11% ahead of the normal pace for this time of year. TX condition ratings were 8 points higher on the Brugler500 Index. Ratings in NC dropped 36 points, with GA down 3. The Cotlook A index was 55 points from the previous day at 88.65 cents/lb on September 24. The USDA weekly AWP is 71.59 cents/lb, in effect through Thursday.


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com